Stochastic multi-modal transport network under demand uncertainties and adverse weather condition

This paper proposes a novel multi-modal transport network assignment model considering uncertainties in both demand and supply sides of the network. These uncertainties are mainly due to adverse weather conditions with different degrees of impacts on different modes. The paper provides derivations of mean and var-cov of passenger flows under the common-line framework and different dis-utility terms involved in the route/mode choice model. The model allows the risk-averse travelers to consider both an average and uncertainty of the random perceived travel time on each multi-modal path in their path choice decisions, together with the impacts of weather forecasts. The model also considers travelers’ perception errors using a Probit stochastic user equilibrium framework formulated as fixed point problem. A heuristic solution algorithm is proposed for solving the fixed point problem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model.